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Leveraging System 0: Mixing Human and Artificial Knowledge Agents

I had my eyes opened to the possibility of leveraging organisational behaviour as an observational study by a behavioural scientist who used to train police hostage negotiators. We talked about why the evidence obtained from randomised controlled trials was a gold standard, which was interesting to me because my job

Controlling for large language models in decision making chains

I think it's both useful and important to distinguish the information processes and outputs which have had artificial knowledge agent input. The usefulness of these probabilistic knowledge fetchers is based on how well they can help a human knowledge agent solve a problem, often brought to them by

Mountains and risk heuristics

I need a heuristic to be simple enough to do in my head, while doing other things like observing and engaging. Sounds trivial but isn't for a lot of people and it is great to see society being able to talk about thinks like autism and ADHD with

The climb-to-see model

The climb-to-see model comes from a series of risk presentations I gave to Alpine New Zealand as well as a risk management piece of work with New Zealand Search and Rescue. Both happened to land at the same time and the twin activities of understanding the psychology of the climber

What I mean by risk

There is a very large risk management industry, much of it is useful but which parts are useful isn't so clear. When it came time to pick a speciality in risk management (2012), I chose likelihoods and assessing uncertainties. Likelihoods were good because they had to sum to

The next set of priors

Next week I commence a role with some important accountability associations. It is a significant enough step change to necessitate an updated statement of priors. 'Priors' are the set of probabilities necessary to kickstart Bayesian techniques in work processes. They permit navigation from a known point and a

I Would Have Written a Shorter Letter, But I Didn't Have the Time

My reflections on the Future for Life 'call for pause' letter controversy, which is not a false controversy The title is from Blaise Pascal (1623-1662, a short life, Quote Investigator), whose work we continuously encounter in the body of work on mathematics, economics, probability and many other useful

Meta's Cicero is not a threshold moment, but it could be, if we wanted, just for a different reason

I wake early to do low light photography: time for coffee and a quick scan of current activity in LinkedIn, which is happening during one of the northern Hemisphere posting bursts, when top of planet people are sending updates of their work, each with different relativity 'past-ness' for

The second risk of risk management

The first risk of risk management is faulty risk management models. The second risk is making a fundamental category error about what sort of causal risk we're facing. We can do well on the first, but can still crash and burn with the second. The health system paradigm

Roger Martin, Integrative Thinking and the Opposable Mind

I read Roger Martin's epic little 2008 book 'The Opposable Mind' at the same time as I was working through Sam Savage's 2012 book "The Flaw of Averages". Both authors used a similar analogy: the human hand. Martin talked about the importance

The flying fish: an updated theory of change model

This was meant to be a live piece while I worked the model up but I didn't move it along. Mainly because I ran out of time and got drawn into other things. But having a theory of change turns out to be somewhat important and so I&

Explained but not understood

(An exploratory essay; last updated 4 December 2020) When we lose track of whose version of a story to trust, paranoia ensues. It seems no coincidence that we find ourselves in an epistemological crisis several years into what is frequently described as a “crisis in the humanities”, the very subjects

Lab notes Rovelli 11/11

I'm in my lab to get my head around #quantumcomputing and using Carlo Rovelli's The Order of Time to melt my brain to an appropriate state

Rovelli Lab Notes 10/11

I'm in my lab to get my head around #quantumcomputing [https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=quantumcomputing&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A6702009941915377664] and using Carlo Rovelli's The Order of Time to melt my brain to an appropriate state "How does one describe a

Lab notes - Rovelli - 9/11

I'm in my lab to get my head around #quantumcomputing and using Carlo Rovelli's *The Order of Time* to melt my brain to an appropriate state "The fact that we cannot arrange the universe like a simple orderly sequence of times does not mean that

Lab notes - Rovelli - 8/11

I'm in my lab to get my head around #quantumcomputing quantum computing and using Carlo Rovelli's *The Order of Time* to melt my brain to an appropriate state. Episode 8/11 "The difference between things and events is that things persist in time; events have

Claims that can't be tested are worthless

I have to remind myself what theory of change (ToC) is every time I go to use it. There's something vague about it that's unsettling. That sense of vagueness is uncertainty. We can reduce uncertainty through measurement, which has a close relationship with taking action. We

Don't use shortcuts taking the test of experience

A theory of change helps apply the test of experience to our ideas and in so doing enables them to be deemed empirical.

Embed theory of change into lean start-up and agile

When theorists build theory, they design, construct and interpret imaginary experiments. In doing so, their activities resemble the three processes of evolution: variation, selection and retention. Karl E. Weick An effective strategist cultivates a capability to imagine a range of possible future states. Some of these states will require an

My Pi-spective on Probability

(A pi-spective is when you write about something using only 314 words. Which doesn't include these words or the credits at the bottom) We talk about probability all the time. Any time we say 'probably'. Or 'likely'. Or making statements about the future like

My Pi-spective on Privacy

(A pi-spective is when you write about something using only 314 words. Which doesn't include these words or the credits at the bottom) We live in an age of discoverability. This isn't necessarily a bad thing. We like discovering things. It's a very human

My Pispective on Trust

(A pispective is where you write about something in 314 words. Which doesn't include these words or the credit at the bottom) It's a safe bet that any big/open data article we read will mention trust. Everyone in the technology industry understands that trust is

My Pispective on Fear

(A pispective is when you write about something using only 314 words. Which doesn't include these words or the credits at the bottom) We are a tempestuous lot. We are forever in turmoil. We create a lot of energy and excitement as we move through life. This helps

My Pispective on Professional Standards

(A pispective is when you write about something in 314 words. Which doesn't count these words or the credits at the bottom) It's important to have standards. One sense of having a standard is to stand firm. In the sense of a battle. We plant our

My Pispective on Being Free from Care

(A pispective is when you write about something in 314 words. Which doesn't include these words or the credits at the bottom) Security means being free from care. It is related to the words 'cure' and 'secret'. Security is something that, deep down, many

My Pispective on Managing by the Numbers

(A pispective is when you write about something with only 314 words. Which doesn't include these. Or the credits at the bottom) Good decisions don't come easily. That is, effective decision making isn't something that just happens. And we all like to think we

My Pispective on Trust

(A pispective is when you write about something in 314 words). The 2017 Edelman Trust Barometer tells management professionals that we're not managing well. Or being professional enough. Management is about integration. Being professional is about setting and observing your own standards. When I think about limits to

My Pispective on the Private Sector

(A pispective is when you write about something using only 314 words. Which doesn't include these words or the credit at the bottom). The private sector is a recent term, coined after the end of the Second World War. It was preceded by 'private enterprise' in

My Pispective on Drawing the Line

(A pispective is when you write about something in 314 words. Which doesn't count these words or the image credit) How to decide when to draw the line on something? This isn't quite the same as drawing a line in the sand (though its close). That&

My Pispective on Interviewing

A pispective is where you write about something in 314 words. Which doesn't count these words or the credits at the bottom. What is an interview anyway? The word originally meant 'to briefly catch sight of'. It then took on the meaning of a conversation to

My Pispective on Welcoming Surprises

(A pispective is when you write about something 314 words) Surprises are important. They might not always be welcome, but they are important. The original sense of the word meant to take over, to seize or to invade. In the 16th century it took on the meaning of something unexpected

Managing Excerptations: Technology and Humanity

I started my blog to kick my non-writing habit. I've now got enough material to start blocking out a book (hooray!). So while I'm doing that, I thought I'd start a small series looking at some of the books that have influenced me. "

My Pispective on the Appropriate Maximum

(A pispective is when you write about something using only 314 words) If we can take something to its full extent, should we? Frank Sinatra had a hit in 1939 with 'All or Nothing at All'. Though I prefer Billie Holiday's cover. Anyway, the line goes,

Managing Excerptations: Managers and Morality

I started my blog to kick my non-writing habit. I've now got enough material to start blocking out a book (hooray!). So while I'm doing that, I thought I'd start a small series looking at some of the books that have influenced me. "

My Pispective on Making (Stuff) Up

(A pispective is when you write about something using only 314 words) 'Stick to your knitting'. Basically it means stay close to what you know. The opposite to this is to 'make sh*t up'. In some professions taking the 'MSU approach is well accepted.

My Pispective on Self-Discipline

(A pispective is where you write about something using 314 words) One thing people say I'm good at is self-discipline. 'Discipline' is an interesting word. In the early Middle Ages it took on the meaning of chastisement or punishment. This sense overlaid the original meaning of

Managing Excerptations: Adopting Appropriate Beliefs

I started my blog to kick my non-writing habit. I've now got enough material to start blocking out a book (hooray!). So while I'm doing that, I thought I'd start a small series looking at some of the books that have influenced me. "

My Pispective on the Echo Chamber

(A pispective is where you write about something in 314 words) I've been having some really interesting conversations with people on LinkedIn. The topic is about the importance of managing your own echo chamber. We all have one. If we're in a room full of people

Managing Excerptations: Establishing A Culture of Observation

I started my blog to kick my non-writing habit. I've now got enough material to start blocking out a book (hooray!). So while I'm doing that, I thought I'd start a small series looking at some of the books that have influenced me. "

My Pispective on Changing the Umwelt

(A pispective is where you write about something in 314 words) Change management. A term I never connected with. How does one 'manage' change? I can manage my place in change, like a swimmer in a river. But I don't manage the river. Umwelt. A term

Managing Excerptations: Restructuring and the Circle of Safety

I started my blog to kick my non-writing habit. I've now got enough material to start blocking out a book (hooray!). So while I'm doing that, I thought I'd start a small series looking at some of the books that have influenced me. "

My Pispective on Business Constitutions

(A pispective is where you write about something in 314 words) We humans are naturally purpose seeking but also naturally commitment avoiding. By which I mean, we like to sign up for important sounding stuff, but also like an escape clause. Just in case things get tougher than expected. '

Managing Excerptations: The Illusion of Understanding

I started my blog to kick my non-writing habit. I've now got enough material to start blocking out a book (hooray!). So while I'm doing that, I thought I'd start a small series looking at some of the books that have influenced me. "

My Pispective on Questioning the Boss

A pispective is when you write about something using only 314 words) I just finished reading Daniel Gilbert's 1991 paper 'How Mental Systems Believe' . It gave me a lot to think about. One of the last notes I took was, "People are credulous creatures who

My Pispective on the Precariat and the Public Sector

(A pispective is when you write about something using only 314 words) There is a large and growing group of people in the world who comprise the precariat. Their work situation is unstable and they lack the unifying narrative that secure work provides. They are paid by the hour and

Managing Excerptations: Algorithmic Tasks and the Creative Economy

I started my blog to kick my non-writing habit. I've now got enough material to start blocking out a book (hooray!). So while I'm doing that, I thought I'd start a small series looking at some of the books that have influenced me. "

My Pispective on Management and Dark Matter

(A pispective is when you write about something using only 314 words) There is this thing that torments physicists called dark matter. It's not a trivial matter either. Apparently, dark matter and its room mate dark energy comprise 95.1% of the total mass-energy of the universe. In

Managing Excerptions: Reducing Choice

I started my blog to kick my non-writing habit. I've now got enough material to start blocking out a book (hooray!). So while I'm doing that, I thought I'd start a small series looking at some of the books that have influenced me "

My Pispective on Good Promotion

(A pispective is where you write about something in 314 words) One advantage of working in the hospitality industry is understanding how to be a good customer. If you want good service, learn to be a good customer. Fairly straightforward really. This is the Golden Rule, or the Law of

Managing Excerptations: Social Learning

I started my blog to kick my non-writing habit. I've now got enough material to start blocking out a book (hooray!). So while I'm doing that, I thought I'd start a small series looking at some of the books that have influenced me. "

My Pispective on Digital Transformation

(A pispective is where you write about something in 314 words) As psychologist Daniel Gilbert is often quoted, "disbelieving is hard work." In his original 1991 paper 'How Mental Systems Believe', he concluded, "People are credulous creatures who find it very easy to believe and

Managing Excerptations: Risk and the Management Professional

I started my blog to kick my non-writing habit. I've now got enough material to start blocking out a book (hooray!). So while I'm doing that, I thought I'd start a small series looking at some of the books that have influenced me. "

Dumb as a Post: Generation X and Our Responsibility to Lead

Since embracing the writing thing I've become very disciplined with my schedule. But there are times when something has to be written and it won't wait. Which means it doesn't go through the usual editing process where I take out some of my stronger

My Pispective on Succession

(A pispective is when you write about something in 314 words) Succession planning. Another quaint phrase from our recently deceased neo liberal era of mass-production management techniques. Succession used to be about the right of succeeding someone by inheritance. It was about taking another person's place. But succession

Managing Excerptations: The Wandering Mind

I started my blog to kick my non-writing habit. I've now got enough material to start blocking out a book (hooray!). So while I'm doing that, I thought I'd start a small series looking at some of the books that have influenced me. "

My Pispective on Personalization

(A pi-spective is where you write about something using 314 words) What is this thing called 'personalization'? '-Ization' is the process of doing or making something. So is personalization the process of making a person? No: it is the marketing process of tailoring something for a

Managing Excerptations: Rationality

I started my blog to kick my non-writing habit. I've now got enough material to start blocking out a book (hooray!). So while I'm doing that, I thought I'd start a small series looking at some of the books that have influenced me. "

My Pispective on Being Frightened at Work

(A pi-spective is where you write about something in 314 words) No one likes being frightened. Frightened is different from scared. Fright is a trembling dread, a sudden onset of terror. Fright affects us all. It's an existential threat. It can fall upon us at any time and

Managing Excerptations: Resource Dependence

I started my blog to kick my non-writing habit. I've now got enough material to start blocking out a book (hooray!). So while I'm doing that, I thought I'd start a small series looking at some of the books that have influenced me. "

My Pispective on Telescopes

(A pi-spective is where you write about something in 314 words) At its simplest, a telescope is an instrument used to observe remote objects. Images of Galileo, tubes on tripods and stargazing come to mind when we think of telescopes. Motivational speaker Jim Rohn tells me that I'm

The Service Business & Its Funding

Secure the funding. This is the primary imperative of the internal service business unit. It is the outcome that will precede all others. Do whatever it takes to ensure we get budget funding for this and the coming year. This means paying attention to what budget allocators expect, and then

My Pispective on Reinventing the Wheel

(A pi-spective is where you write about something in 314 words). Don't reinvent the wheel. If I had a wheel for how many times someone has said that to me... The thing is the wheel gets reinvented all the time. And we like it. But the wheel was

Service Businesses That Don't Serve

The defining trait of a customer is the capacity to choose to not consume. A ‘service’ business such as an internal analytics business unit or a public sector agency only has customers if the intended beneficiaries of the agency can choose to not consume the service in question. If they

My Pi-spective on Explanation

(A pi-spective is where you write about something in 314 words. For those counting, this post has lots of hyphenated words. My word processor counted each compound word as one word. Just saying) Make a two by two matrix. Write 'known' and 'unknown' on each axis.

Productivity is the First Test of Management

The purpose of this blog is to capture my thoughts about the current state and future direction of the profession of management. The first test of management is how productive a business is under their care. Productivity is an awful word. It bedevils business professionals. But we have to come

My Pi-spective on Curiosity

(A pi-spective is where you write about something in 314 words) In a world replete with ready answers and easy explanations, being curious can be hard work. The analytics industry is all about finding answers. Google is only a few taps away. A flotilla of listicles provide us with the

Objectives Are About What You Create

The word ‘objective’ is relatively new in the sense we use in business, emerging as a French military term in the mid 19th Century. It originated as an adjective, which meant it needed a noun to make sense. An ‘objective’ is relative to the object. It took on a noun

My Pi-Spective on Authenticity

(A pi-spective is where you write about something in 314 words) There's a lot of this word 'authenticity' going around in leadership circles at the moment. In management if something is worth doing, then someone will overdo it. There's an influential school of leadership

A Business Decision is an Exercise in Humanity

We all like to be successful. Being successful in business makes us feel fantastic. We want more success in life as a general rule. Because of this we tend to try and do more of what made us successful. But when we repeat what we gave us success yesterday, we

My Pi-Spective on Humility

(A pi-spective is where you write about something in 314 words) Humility is such a hard thing to get right. We place ourselves in the centre of the events of our lives. Often times we're simply bit part players. But we don't like the implications of

Senior Leaders Have One Decision to Make

Business organizations are decision making networks. To ‘organize’ is to construct or establish. The word comes from ‘organ’ which has a confused etymology. It surfaces in the Greek as an ‘implement, a tool for making or doing’. It had a strong association to musical instruments. Which is helpful because the

My Pi-Spective on Positive Dissatisfaction

(A pi-spective is where you write about something using only 314 words) Dissatisfaction. Even the word feels empty. It's different from unsatisfied. To satisfy originally meant to make amends or repay. The root is about 'doing enough'. Now it's become about having something in

Looking Past The Obvious

This series of posts is about the importance of learning to build a theory about what our business is and should be. Ours is a liminal world, a place of ambiguity and disorientation where a new way of thinking is still emerging. The basic idea is if we don’t

My Pi-Spective on Staying Relevant

"The devil is in the detail." We hear this all the time. Catchphrases such as this can mean everything and nothing at the same time. It suggests that we must take great care to scrutinize the detail of a project or proposal lest it fail. An older version

Being Open To Emergent Explanation

(This post continues my look at the role of theory in business. A basic concept in my work is liminality, which is a stage of ambiguity and disorientation that precedes a new way of thinking. Note I use [.] as a place holder instead of 'manager', 'management'

My Pi-Spective on Who to Work With

(A pi-spective is where you write about something using only 314 words) We like to do things ourselves. If we can't do it ourselves we're happy to get someone else to do it. But not just anyone. Sometimes it will be our family or our friends.

Assumptions Are Bad for Business

This next series of posts will develop my thinking around the importance of business theory. Investing time in business theory isn't necessary if you’re not taking responsibility for making something important happen. The focus of this blog is on the world and experiences of those people who

My Pi-Spective on Changing Mental Models

(A pi-spective is where you write about something using only 314 words) Change is a choice. The choice is mainly about taking on new mental models. We tend to like the way we think. Many of us got where we are today because of disciplined application of time and effort

How To Avoid Unremarkable Business Outcomes?

The scientific method has made a welcome return to the profession of business management. It’s helped hasten the end of the age of the consultant. It’s given us an alternative to proprietary frameworks, methodologies and ten step paths to success. It means we can return to observing organizations

My Pi-Spective on Business Theory

(A pi-spective is where you write about something using only 314 words) The modern business professional is paid to think. What used to work doesn't seem to work as well. Or maybe we couldn't ignore the evidence that it never worked. Whatever the case, the value-add

Administration Makes Innovation Effective

The purpose of this blog is to capture my thoughts about the current state and future direction of the profession of management. I don't buy into the leadership vs management debate: it feels like a false dichotomy to me. Part of the problem is we need new words.

My Pi-Spective on Being Considerate

(A pi-spective is where you write about something using only 314 words) Being considerate to others is a fairly basic thing many people seem to get wrong. The essential meaning of the word 'consider' is to reflect on or be thoughtful. In the context of other people, it&

Coming to Terms with a Measureless World

(This post concludes my look at the ideas of futurity: futurity is the time span over which a decision is effective. Another important concept is liminality, which is a stage of ambiguity and disorientation that precedes a new way of thinking. Note I use [.] as a place holder instead of

My Pi-Spective on Attainment

(A pi-spective is where you write about something using only 314 words) When you get what you want it's time to ask yourself for more. The only goals worth achieving in life are the ones you set for yourself. If they're set by others, they'

Planning Towards Dangerous Irrelevance

(This post continues my look at the ideas of futurity and liminality. Futurity is the time span over which a decision is effective and liminality is a stage of ambiguity and disorientation that precedes a new way of thinking. I’m coming to the end of this phase: this post

My Pi-Spective on Persistence

(A pi-spective is where you write about something using only 314 words) Persistence is a good thing but beyond a certain point it isn't. We don't know what the point is in advance and it's contextual. We bring our beliefs about the world and

Reducing Functionalism to a Homoeopathic Dilution

(This post continues my look at the idea of futurity and liminality. Futurity is the time span over which a decision is effective and liminality is a stage of ambiguity and disorientation that precedes a new way of thinking. Fortunately for everyone, I'm starting to get to the

My Pi-Spective on Organizational Politics

(A pi-spective is where you write about something using only 314 words) Politics in organizations gets a bad rap. An early meaning was along the lines of 'the science of good sense'. Few would argue about the importance of science and fewer still about the value of good

Working in Two Time Dimensions

The purpose of this blog is to capture my thoughts about the current state and future direction of the profession of management. I don't buy into the leadership vs management debate: it feels like a false dichotomy to me. Part of the problem is we need new words.

My Pi-spective on the Creative Mindset

(A pi-spective is where you write about something using only 314 words) This pi-spective is written for the Reeds Spring Middle School Artists and Designers. Check out the Reeds Spring Mission Statement, which puts many in the corporate world to shame with their focus on being clear and succinct. Reeds

The Difference Between Planning and Futurity

The purpose of this blog is to capture my thoughts about the current state and future direction of the profession of management. I don't buy into the leadership vs management debate: it feels like a false dichotomy to me. Part of the problem is we need new words.

My Pi-spective on Confidence

(A pi-spective is where you write about something using only 314 words) Confidence is a strange thing. We believe it to be a good thing but it can as easily deceive us. We are confident in our beliefs when they make a good story, and a good story is about

Performance Appraisal is About Self Definition

Shawn Murphy, CEO and founder of Switch and Shift ('the human side of business') wrote an article for Inc where he explored the problems with the performance appraisal system: http://www.inc.com/shawn-murphy/killing-the-annual-performance-appraisal.html. It's a good read and, like all good reads, got

My Pi-spective on Business Writing

(A pi-spective is where you write about something using only 314 words) Business writing is critical to the modern business professional. In the age of social business expressing yourself is the primary business activity. We talk about the digital divide in society and business in terms of the haves and

My Pi-spective on the Dead Cat Bounce

(A pi-spective is where you write about something using only 314 words) A dead cat bounce is a financial term: it means a short recovery following a decline. The idea behind it is that even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height. A dead cat

Book Review

I've just finished reading Keith E. Stanovich's excellent introductory text to rationality Decision Making and Rationality in the Modern World I learnt a lot more than I thought I would, which is always a happy surprise. It introduced to me two views of rationality: instrumental (what

Our Task is to Improve Quality of Life Not Just Standards of Living

The purpose of this blog is to capture my thoughts about the current state and future direction of the profession of management. I don't buy into the leadership vs management debate: it feels like a false dichotomy to me. It just seems to make smart people sound stupid.

My Pi-spective on Technology

(A pi-spective is where you write about something using only 314 words) Technology isn't what we think it is. Or rather, most of us confuse technology with tools. We have lots of tools but our set of technologies is much smaller. Technology is an organised doctrine or science

My Pi-spective on Choice

(A pi-spective is when you talk about something with only 314 words) Choice. Something we want, in principle. Something we avoid more often than we'd like to admit. And we avoid more choice than we're aware. We lack choice in the areas that we think we

My Pi-spective on Risk

(A pi-spective is when you talk about something with only 314 words) Risk is about the chance and cost of being wrong. Our brains don't like risk. We come up with all sorts of foolishness to avoid thinking about it. People have made careers profiting from our fear