Rohan Light

There is a very large risk management industry, much of it is useful but which parts are useful isn't so clear. When it came time to pick a speciality in risk management (2012), I chose likelihoods and assessing uncertainties. Likelihoods were good because they had to sum to

Next week I commence a role with some important accountability associations. It is a significant enough step change to necessitate an updated statement of priors. 'Priors' are the set of probabilities necessary to kickstart Bayesian techniques in work processes. They permit navigation from a known point and a

I wake early to do low light photography: time for coffee and a quick scan of current activity in LinkedIn, which is happening during one of the northern Hemisphere posting bursts, when top of planet people are sending updates of their work, each with different relativity 'past-ness'

The first risk of risk management is faulty risk management models. The second risk is making a fundamental category error about what sort of causal risk we're facing. We can do well on the first, but can still crash and burn with the second. The health system paradigm

I read Roger Martin's epic little 2008 book 'The Opposable Mind' at the same time as I was working through Sam Savage's 2012 book "The Flaw of Averages". Both authors used a similar analogy: the human hand. Martin talked about the importance